The December comScore data for the United States was released recently and has set bloggers all a buzz. Most seem to crying out about how online social networks are slowing down, because growth on several of the largest networking sites has slowed and MySpace’s numbers have dropped a bit. I’d like to offer a different perspective.
The slow down in growth on the largest social networking sites is not the death knoll of the whole concept of social networking sites. It is, however, a wake up call to reality. The issue isn’t really that these sites are slowing down, it’s that more targeted niche sites are heating up. MySpace’s numbers boomed when the press discovered it and everyone, including your mother, decided to check it out. The level of growth that site saw could never be supported. As the media is fickle and always looking for the next big thing to write about, it quickly moved on to Facebook. Once again many people, including your mother, moved on to Facebook.
But what the press doesn’t really talk about, and the comScore numbers don’t reflect, is all of the other niche social networking sites that are out there. These affinity-based social networking sites provide users with a group that has common ground. MySpace and Facebook don’t really do that, unless you are actually friends in the real-world definition of the word. People who may have spent time on MySpace may now be found instead on BakeSpace, Ravelry, Mashable, LinkedIn, Gather, or any of thousands of other options. Why spend time turning down “friend” requests from spammers when you can talk about what you are really interested in on these other sites? And you can’t leave out the fact that many retail sites that at first glance don’t seem like social networking sites, like Amazon and Etsy, actually have very strong community features to keep users engaged longer and more often.
The situation is simply akin to the development of cable networks and the proliferation of niche broadcast channels. Marketers have had to deal with a constantly fragmented television viewership over the years — why would they think it would be any different online? As the hype wears down, MySpace and Facebook’s numbers will level off and probably see ups and downs. Some new huge player we can’t even imagine will come onto the scene and we’ll all be talking about it. And at the same time, all of these smaller little sites with strong niche affinity groups will continue to flourish.
Welcome to the new normal of the social Web.
[tags]comscore, data, social networking, media bias, myspace, facebook fatigue[/tags]
2 comments ↓
Good point about niche networks! not just that, but people will pick which niche works best for them and stay with that group (since the idea of the google’s open API is just a way of moving the same people to another place.) From what I understand, Ning’s been doing well because it allows for a cheap and easy way to build a niche social network site. But, eventually, if there isn’t a reason to stay in that social network, then people will abandon it.
Which raises the question of why we use soc. network sites anyway, and who uses them the most. That may change over time.
Tish — right back at you on the “good point.” Sorry it’s taken me so long to respond. One of the big things that many studies are now looking at are the “why” of social networks online and it seems like the most successful ones are those that help people reinforce pre-existing social networks. Can’t quote the study right now, but I’m sure I could dig it out if need be.
Why people engage with particular social sites and social computing features is really what we all need to be paying more attention to.
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