(x-posted from RTCRM blog)

The December comScore data for the United States was released recently and has set bloggers all a buzz. Most seem to crying out about how online social networks are slowing down, because growth on several of the largest networking sites has slowed and MySpace’s numbers have dropped a bit. I’d like to offer a different perspective.

The slow down in growth on the largest social networking sites is not the death knoll of the whole concept of social networking sites. It is, however, a wake up call to reality. The issue isn’t really that these sites are slowing down, it’s that more targeted niche sites are heating up. MySpace’s numbers boomed when the press discovered it and everyone, including your mother, decided to check it out. The level of growth that site saw could never be supported. As the media is fickle and always looking for the next big thing to write about, it quickly moved on to Facebook. Once again many people, including your mother, moved on to Facebook.

But what the press doesn’t really talk about, and the comScore numbers don’t reflect, is all of the other niche social networking sites that are out there. These affinity-based social networking sites provide users with a group that has common ground. MySpace and Facebook don’t really do that, unless you are actually friends in the real-world definition of the word. People who may have spent time on MySpace may now be found instead on BakeSpace, Ravelry, Mashable, LinkedIn, Gather, or any of thousands of other options. Why spend time turning down “friend” requests from spammers when you can talk about what you are really interested in on these other sites? And you can’t leave out the fact that many retail sites that at first glance don’t seem like social networking sites, like Amazon and Etsy, actually have very strong community features to keep users engaged longer and more often.

The situation is simply akin to the development of cable networks and the proliferation of niche broadcast channels. Marketers have had to deal with a constantly fragmented television viewership over the years — why would they think it would be any different online? As the hype wears down, MySpace and Facebook’s numbers will level off and probably see ups and downs. Some new huge player we can’t even imagine will come onto the scene and we’ll all be talking about it. And at the same time, all of these smaller little sites with strong niche affinity groups will continue to flourish.

Welcome to the new normal of the social Web.

[tags]comscore, data, social networking, media bias, myspace, facebook fatigue[/tags]